Fire occurrence forecasts

Fire occurrence probabilities for the 2019 dry season in Indonesia produced by the ToFEWSI modelling system. The predictions are generated using Neural Network algorithm. The model is trained using ERA5 reanalysis weather, past forest cover change, past fire occurrence observations and peatland distribution map in Indonesia. Forecast probabilities are computed using ECMWF SEAS5 model seasonal forecasts. Validation is performed against MODIS active fire observations. To find out more about the method see this EGU2019 poster.

Forecast for:

SEAS5 lead:

Prediction product:

SEAS5-based fire occurrence probability for September 2019, SEAS5 forecast released on the 1st September 2019

Forecast probability % 1030507090

Compare to:

MODIS Active fire count for September 2019

Active fires count 10204080160